Once considered the stuff of science fiction, Bank of America says self-driving cars now have “real-world visibility.” The “feasibility” of autonomous vehicles has risen significantly in the past decade, thanks to a “multi-billion investment cycle”; 5G networks; advancements in big data, artificial intelligence and machine learning; and a more conducive regulatory environment, Bank of America’s Justin Post said in a note on Dec. 8. He added that full autonomous capabilities will take some time to be developed, but the groundwork is being laid with “Level Four” autonomy — largely seen as the final stage of development before a vehicle becomes fully autonomous. The bank said it expects 2.2 million autonomous vehicles to be on the roads by 2028, citing research by consultancy firm Berg Insights. In November, UBS estimated that China’s autonomous driving-related market could reach $100 billion by 2030 . Internet companies Bank of America said this ramp-up in autonomous vehicles has “broad implications” for internet companies. “Alphabet ‘s Waymo is expected to be a key supplier of AV technology and potential mobility competitor while Uber , Lyft and even DoorDash are likely to integrate AVs into their networks to reduce driver costs,” Post said. “Simultaneously, Amazon , Walmart , UPS , and others, are expected to modernize supply chain logistics with autonomous trucking,” he added. Bank of America estimates that Amazon could enjoy up to $4.5 billion in cost savings if it used autonomous vehicles for delivery now, and more could be saved as volumes grow. The bank has a price target of $137 on Amazon, which represents a 53.9% potential upside to its closing price on Dec. 9. Ride-hailing firms Uber and Lyft could benefit from lower operating costs per mile, according to Bank of America’s forecasts, although the cost savings are expected to be significantly lower than Amazon’s. The bank added that getting the cost of autonomous vehicles down to the level of conventional autos will be key to their transition. Bank of America has a price target of $43 on Uber, giving the stock potential upside of 59.3%. — CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed to this report.
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