Black box economics: Russia’s internal struggle over classified financial data

Russian policymakers are debating whether to declassify more data as the Kremlin’s drive for secrecy leaves even seasoned observers struggling to make sense of the country’s economy.

Elvira Nabiullina, Russia’s central bank governor, is leading a push to roll back most of a decision to make reams of economic data classified, taken in the early weeks of last year’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, according to three people familiar with the matter.

The Kremlin, which has yet to approve the initiative, has justified withholding information on a wide range of economic statistics as a necessary defence against western sanctions. The classified data sets include important indicators such as foreign reserve holdings and export figures. Russian companies are allowed to keep “sensitive” results secret.

Nabiullina said last month that the country needed to disclose more data for markets to grow. “We need to go back to proper disclosure, with a few exceptions, so investors can invest in securities,” she said.

The debate highlights the extent to which economic data have become part of Russia’s information war accompanying Vladimir Putin’s offensive in Ukraine — and the west’s efforts to slow it down.

Addressing his economic cabinet on January 17, the Russian president proudly declared Russia had weathered the worst of the sanctions.

“The real dynamics turned out to be better than many expert forecasts,” said Putin. “Remember, some of our experts here in the country — I’m not even talking about western experts — thought [gross domestic product] would fall by 10, 15, even 20 per cent.”

Analysts agree that Russia’s economy has fared better than expected, but Putin’s rush to classify most economic data has left them with little to go on other than his triumphant statements — and has even tripped up the Russian president himself.

Classified budget spending has increased by more than 40 per cent to $95bn compared with prewar planning of $54bn. Russian foreign trade data have disappeared entirely.

The uncertainty around Russia’s data has muddied the economic picture so much that the country’s capacity to absorb the sanctions has surprised even policymakers with access to classified figures, according to three people familiar with the matter.

“The opacity of…