How Thailand’s military old guard could respond to election results

Thailand’s preliminary election results was a triumph for the progressive Move Forward party but its reforms are set to threaten conservative forces that may move to prevent the pro-democracy party from governing.

Move Forward’s leader and chosen prime ministerial candidate Pita Limjaroenrat has announced a six-party coalition that includes Pheu Thai, a populist, pro-democracy party that came second in the election.

This gives the coalition 310 seats in parliament’s 500-seat lower house. Whoever the coalition appoints as prime minister must win 376 parliamentary votes — a combined number from the 250-seat, military-appointed Senate and the lower house. The vote for PM is expected in August after the Election Commission certifies election results.

Analysts say Move Forward faces a daunting task to shore up the remaining 66 vote due to its controversial proposed policies — a new constitution, ending military dominance in politics, abolishing mandatory military conscription, abolishing business monopolies and revising the lese-majeste law that punishes insults to the king with jail time.

The Move Forward party recently said potential coalition partners don’t need to support its stance on lese-majeste as it plans to table it in parliament independently — its refusal to compromise could also isolate prospective allies and most of the junta-led Senate.

Ahead of the prime ministerial vote, political watchers anticipate a variety of outcomes, including the possibility of forced intervention by the country’s powerful military-monarchy alliance.

“Move Forward’s agenda is an affront and a frontal challenge to the established centers of power,” said Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a professor at Chulalongkorn University’s Faculty of Political Science and a senior fellow at its Institute of Security and International Studies.

“It is likely a matter of when and how — not whether — they will strike back.”

Arch-royalists could go as far as to ban Move Forward, the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) warned in a report….