Thursday, 8 June 2023


Push and pull By Reuters

Take Five: Push and pull

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: An employee hiring sign with a QR code is seen in a window of a business in Arlington, Virginia, U.S., April 7, 2023. REUTERS/Elizabeth Frantz

(Reuters) – Key jobs figures in the United States, Chinese business activity data and European inflation readings are giving more evidence on the pull and push factors impacting the world’s top economies as the debt ceiling saga in Washington rumbles on.

In Turkey, voters head to the polls to decide on their next president and tech investors are on the hunt for undervalued opportunities in an over-valued space.

Here’s a look at the week ahead in markets from Kevin Buckland in Tokyo, Lewis Krauskopf in New York, Dhara Ranasinghe, Naomi Rovnick and Karin Strohecker in London.


    Will U.S. jobs data out on June 2 show that the world’s top economy is strong enough to avoid a recession but not so hot that it forces another hawkish move by the Federal Reserve?

    Non-farm payrolls for May are expected to record job growth of 180,000, according a Reuters poll. In April, U.S. job growth accelerated to add 253,000 with wage gains increasing solidly.

    The jobs report will be one of the last pieces of data before the June Fed meeting, where the central bank is expected to hit pause on its aggressive 14-month-old rate hiking cycle to tamp down inflation.

Meanwhile, the clock is ticking down on the U.S. government hitting its $31.4 trillion debt ceiling, with the federal government potentially running out of money to pay all its bills as soon as June 1.


At its meeting three weeks ago, the ECB reiterated that it was very much in rate-hiking mode to tame inflation. Markets, not convinced, dialled back bets for further increases and focused on weakening growth. Germany just entered recession.

Yet, it is traders that – for now – have had to rethink their view. Thursday’s flash May euro zone inflation number and a slew of national data in the days ahead will likely stoke the peak rate debate. Euro zone business activity remains resilient, core inflation is sticky above 5% and wage pressures are picking up.

HSBC expects the ECB’s key rate to peak at 4% from a current 3.25%. Data on Wednesday meanwhile showed UK inflation eased by less than in April, sending gilt yields rocketing. Traders know that they, like central bankers and economists, don’t always get it right.


    It’s China’s turn for PMI report cards – and…

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