Europeans who see Russia as an adversary doubles since the Ukraine war

Twice as many Europeans now see Russia as an adversary than did before the war, yet almost half are unconfident that Ukraine will defeat its opponent.

In a multi-country survey by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), almost two thirds of respondents said they now regarded Russia as an adversary or a rival — double the number of 2021. Public opinion varied broadly across the continent.

Majorities across Denmark, Poland, Sweden and Germany viewed Moscow as an opponent, while only 37% of those surveyed in Italy and 17% in Bulgaria felt the same.

Only one third of respondents said they saw Ukraine winning the war as likely or highly likely, while nearly two fifths (22%) were undecided, and almost half viewed it as unlikely or highly unlikely.

The survey, which comprises public opinion from eleven EU member states — Austria, Bulgaria, Denmark, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Netherlands, Poland, Spain and Sweden — also found that the majority of Europeans are now in favor of the EU boosting its defense capabilities rather than relying on the U.S.

Almost three quarters (74%) of respondents said the bloc should take steps towards securing its own defense strategy, with the view most pronounced in Hungary, the Netherlands, and Germany. Just 8% said that was unnecessary, as the U.S. will always protect Europe.

The report authors said the findings demonstrated Europeans’ increased demand for self-reliance, particularly following Russia’s full-scale invasion of its neighbor.

“The chief takeaway from our survey is that Europeans want to see the EU become more self-reliant in foreign policy and build up its own defensive capabilities,” said Jana Puglierin, co-author and senior fellow.

“These are not new demands of the EU, or of the leaders of its member states, but they have been sharpened by the war in Ukraine and the growing tensions between the US and China.”

Puglierin added that this could be a “defining moment” for the EU and its prospects of shifting away from its dependence on the U.S. toward its own policy positions.