Stocks in the current market rally may have gotten too pricey

Is it stocks, where an advance previously confined to a handful of tech megacaps showed distinct signs of broadening out this week? A $6 trillion rally hangs in the balance. Or maybe it’s bonds, where emanations of gloom abound and bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts are multiplying in a market where volatility is running twice as high as it was just two years ago.

For investors, the potential penalties for being on the wrong side of the trade — essentially, miscalculating the likelihood of a recession — are getting higher with every leg up in the S&P 500, which this week crossed into bull-market territory. JPMorgan Chase & Co. analysts put the cost of mistimed bullishness as high as 20% should equity traders turn out to have misjudged the economy’s path.

“Something has got to give,” said Peter Cecchini, director of research at Axonic Capital. “With equity valuations this stretched in many sectors relative to realistic forecasts for 2023 earnings, we’d bet the give comes from equities.”

The S&P 500 added 0.4% this week to post its fourth straight increase. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 trailed, posting its first decline in seven weeks as money flowed to beaten-down areas like banks and small-caps. A gauge of regional lenders jumped 3%, while the Russell 2000 climbed almost 2%.

Defensively positioned money managers have started warming to the rally. In a poll by the National Association of Active Investment Managers (NAAIM), equity exposure just increased at the fastest pace in more than two years. At 90%, the reading was the highest since November 2021.

For his part, Weinstein, the chief investment officer of Saba Capital Management, says getting too caught up in speculation about the economy is a mistake. “Instead of saying, ‘I think there’ll be a recession or there won’t,’ which I kind of howl at the TV screen when I hear that, I feel like you have to think of ranges of outcomes,” he said, speaking at the Bloomberg Invest event in New York.

That translates into a bet against corporate bonds at Saba, premised on the view that subdued yield spread makes a wager against credit too juicy to pass up. For investors who are increasingly all-in on stocks, however, the perils are increasing.

While the S&P 500…