Stock positioning has fallen further this week, moving to near-neutral levels, according to Deutsche Bank.
Their latest data shows aggregate equity positioning has dropped to just above neutral, with a z-score of 0.20, placing it in the 54th percentile. This marks a significant shift from mid-July when positioning was at the top of its historical range.
A z-score indicates how far a value is from the mean in terms of standard deviations, helping to measure whether it’s above or below the average.
Discretionary investor positioning has also declined, now sitting at the lower end of its first-half range (z-score 0.39, 69th percentile). Meanwhile, systematic strategies positioning remains slightly above average, with a z-score of 0.22, placing it in the 51st percentile. Across sectors, investors have tilted towards more defensive positions.
The report highlights a steep decline in Mega-Cap Growth & Tech positioning. After reaching extremely high levels in July, it has dropped to just above historical averages (z-score 0.22, 73rd percentile). This adjustment aligns with slowing earnings growth, which Deutsche Bank forecasts to decelerate to the low-to-mid 20% range in Q3, with a longer-term projection of growth falling to 11%.
In contrast, defensive sectors, such as utilities, have seen a rise in positioning. Utilities now stand with a z-score of 0.86, placing them in the 90th percentile, a surge that comes amid a rally in interest rates and concerns about the labor market.
Deutsche Bank also notes that equity funds experienced outflows for the first time since April, with a net loss of $1.6 billion.
U.S. equity funds saw the largest outflows, totaling $6.1 billion, while global and emerging market funds continued to receive inflows. Defensive sectors, such as utilities and real estate, benefited from inflows, while cyclical sectors, including financials and energy, faced notable outflows.
Meanwhile, bond funds gained $16.7bn and money market funds $30.2bn. Net long positions in oil futures hit a record low, and the US dollar positioning remains short.
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