Citi has maintained its Neutral rating on Progressive Corp (NYSE:) with a steady price target of $257.00.
The firm’s analysis of auto application downloads in September suggests a potential increase in policies in force (PIF) by approximately 453,000 month-over-month.
The figure indicates a possible upside of 181,000 policies, or 0.8%, compared to the consensus for September. The recent data exhibits a slight growth from the mid-September check-in, which showed an increase of 447,000.
The evaluation by Citi has been instrumental in forecasting Progressive’s net new PIF in the first half of the year, with the exception of July, when Progressive’s actual numbers surpassed expectations.
The anomaly in July was attributed to the assumption of constant retention rates, which turned out to be conservative. Citi’s methodology focuses on Progressive due to the strong correlation observed between app downloads and PIF predictions.
Citi’s analysis underscores the importance of digital tools like mobile applications in gauging insurance business growth. Progressive’s performance in the first half of the year has been closely aligned with the trends indicated by app download metrics, reinforcing the approach’s validity. The slight growth in September’s app downloads compared to mid-month figures provides a nuanced view of the insurer’s trajectory.
The insurance industry, particularly for auto policies, has become increasingly competitive with technology playing a significant role in customer acquisition and retention. Citi’s analysis offers a glimpse into how such technological measures can serve as indicators for a company’s performance. Progressive’s consistent PIF growth, as indicated by the app download analysis, reflects its ability to attract and maintain customers in a dynamic market.
The use of app download data as a predictive tool for insurance companies like Progressive is becoming more prevalent. As digital engagement continues to be a key driver for the insurance sector, such analyses may become a standard component in evaluating company performance and guiding investment decisions. Progressive’s current rating and price target reflect a cautious but informed stance based on the available data.
In other recent news, Progressive Corp. has been the subject of several positive analyst reports following strong earnings and revenue results. Goldman Sachs, Roth/MKM, and Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (KBW) all raised their price targets for Progressive, citing…
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