Spain’s Deoleo says olive oil prices set to halve from record levels

Spain’s Deoleo, the world’s largest olive oil producer, says one of the most challenging moments in the industry’s history appears to be drawing to a close, with “liquid gold” prices expected to nearly halve from an all-time high over the coming months.

A prolonged period of climate-fueled extreme weather and drought in southern Europe has severely impacted olive harvests in recent years, culminating in a dizzying price rally that shocked industry veterans and consumers alike.

The shortage of olive oil, a superfood staple of the Mediterranean diet, pushed the industry into crisis mode, stoked food insecurity fears and even prompted a crime surge in Spanish supermarkets.

Prices have since cooled, however, as industry estimates point to significantly improved harvests in the 2024-2025 season, particularly in key producing countries such as Spain, Greece and Tunisia.

“Although there have been steps towards improvement, it would not be entirely accurate to say that the crisis is over,” Miguel Ángel Guzmán, chief sales officer at Deoleo, told CNBC via email.

“We are still going through a phase of tension in olive oil prices, especially in the higher quality oils, such as Extra Virgin,” Guzmán said, noting that there is still some market uncertainty ahead of the olive harvest for the 2024-2025 season.

“However, the outlook is positive for the coming months, as the market is expected to begin to stabilize and normality is expected to be gradually restored as the new harvest progresses and supply increases,” Guzmán said.

Deoleo, the maker of household olive oil brands such as Bertolli and Carbonell, described a perfect storm of challenges as “one of the most difficult moments in the history of the sector” over the summer and called for a “profound transformation” of the industry.

Extra virgin olive oil prices in Spain’s Andalusia stood at 6 euros ($6.33) per kilogram as of Nov. 6, according to Expana, an agricultural and food-focused market intelligence firm. That’s down around 19% on a monthly basis and nearly 35% off a record high of 9.2 euros in January.

Spain accounts for more than 40% of the world’s olive oil production, making it a global reference for prices.